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South College Neighborhood News

UNCW economists say that Wilmington may outperform state, nation

Submitted by Ashley Barker Tuesday, Oct 11, 2011, 8:45 AM

WILMINGTON, NC (WECT) — The Wilmington area may outperform the state and nation in economic growth in the coming year, according to faculty economists at UNCW.

The good news was announced Tuesday during the eight annual Economic Outlook Conference at the school. The economists say that total output in the Wilmington Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes New Hanover, Brunswick and Pender counties, is forecast to grow 2.2 percent during 2012. That number is slightly more than the forecast for the state, 1.7 percent, and the nation, 1.6 percent.

William Hall — a professor of economics and senior economist with the Swain Center for Business and Economic Services in UNCW's Cameron School of Business—announced the predictions along with collaboration from Ravija Badarinathi — a professor of statistics in the UNCW Department of Information Systems and Operations Management.

According to a news release, historical data shows that output must grow at least 3 percent per year to keep the unemployment rate stable. The business school professors said there are several signs that the local economy is growing. They noted the local residential Real Estate sector has stabilized and that retail sales rebounded sharply in 2010 and have continued to grow. For the year ending in June 2011, sales were reportedly up 6.4 percent in Brunswick County, 13.1 percent in New Hanover County, 12.6 percent in Pender County and 3.3 percent statewide.

They also noted that passenger traffic at the Wilmington International Airport has been relatively stable — both passenger boardings and deboardings were up more than 3 percent.

The forecasted growth assumes no major tropical event or terrorism act. Such unpredictable events could have a significant negative impact on the regional economy.

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